The Impact of the Top

Transformative Megatrends 

WHY:

• Clean transportation is gaining momentum as a Megatrend, with new mobility models shaping the industry's future. 
• Various trends in clean transportation, such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), are gaining traction. 
• Frost Perspective 
• The adoption of zero-emission powertrains, such as electric or fuel cell, in the trucking industry will largely depend on the cost of ownership, state of infrastructure, and government support. 
• Industry transformation will lead to the emergence of new players and their disruption among existing players.

Industry Convergence

WHY:

• A life cycle CO2 emission assessment brings different segments of the industry together. The energy sourcing companies, hydrogen generation plants, fuel transportation, and fuel dispensing outlets need to collaborate to ensure the carbon trail for an FCET remains minimal.

Frost Perspective

• Regulatory authorities must lay out CO2 tracking plans to make sure all industry players understand the importance of ensuring total life cycle CO2 neutrality. A few countries have begun rolling out regulations to track CO2 emissions; it is expected that the United States and Europe will lead the regulatory environment by 2030. 

Geopolitical Chaos

WHY:

• The life cycle assessment of a FCET goes beyond borders. For example, countries such as Australia and the Republic of the Congo mine minerals for batteries, China refines the minerals, and South Korea assembles the batteries. The final vehicles operate in the United States. As such, stakeholders must ensure carbon neutrality across the global supply chain. 

Frost Perspective

• Truck OEMs and regulatory authorities must plan for global supply chain constraints, with the push toward local manufacturing to ensure more control of the complete process and to avoid geopolitical impacts on the transition to clean energy transportation. 

Research Scope:

Growth Drivers

Life Cycle CO2 Emission Assessment of FCETs: Growth Drivers

Driver

1. Shift toward Clean Energy Generation: The source of hydrogen production is an important factor impacting CO2 emissions. The United States depends heavily on NG, and the move toward renewable sources will positively impact CO2 emissions.

2. Ease of Long-range Driving and Refueling: With specialized H2 infrastructure, refilling a truck's H2 tank with gaseous H2 (GH2) gas only takes a few minutes, significantly shorter than the extended recharge period for BEVs. In many use cases, the present generation of FCEVs already boasts a good driving range, making them economically appealing to fleet operators.

3. Higher Energy Storage: H2 offers a notable advantage over EV batteries by requiring significantly less weight and volume to achieve the same range. For instance, a FCET can cover the same distance as an EV with a lithium-ion battery system while carrying only a fraction of the weight and volume, making it a compelling choice for commercial vehicle transportation to balance range and cargo capacity.

4. Scalability Based on Application: FCEVs provide extensive scalability options. To generate the required electricity for truck propulsion, individual fuel cells connect in series, forming a fuel cell stack. This feature makes FCETs a practical and viable choice for heavy-duty transportation applications.