This Frost & Sullivan report analyzes the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry in Europe. It examines the technological developments in this space, covering relevant production pathways and feedstock. The aviation industry, responsible for high amounts of pollution, has increasingly been the focus of policies to reduce environmental damage, driving the adoption of decarbonization processes incorporating SAF to offset emissions. SAF can be produced through various pathways or methods, each with different feedstock requirements, energy needs, and environmental impacts. The study segments SAF pathways into the following: Fischer-Tropsch (FT), alcohol-to-jet (AtJ), hydroprocessed esters & fatty acids (HEFA), and other production pathways.
The report covers the policies regulating SAF usage across Europe and discusses key market trends. It describes the key processes, products, platforms, market players, and partnerships influencing this industry and offers relevant metrics and forecasts. The study examines the factors driving and restraining the growth of this industry and identifies the opportunities emerging from the changes in this space for market players and stakeholders to leverage. The base year is 2023, and the forecast period is from 2024 to 2030.
Scope of analysis
- The aviation industry accounts for 2% of global carbon dioxide emissions, prompting a shift towards sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) to mitigate environmental impact.
- SAF can potentially reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 94%, depending on the production pathway and feedstock.
- SAF is produced from various non-petroleum feedstocks, including waste oil, solid waste, crops, waste gas, and algae.
- ASTM International has approved 11 SAF production pathways, with more methods under consideration.
- The transition to SAF accelerated after the approval of up to 50% blended SAF in aircraft operations in 2011.
- The ICAO and IATA have set ambitious goals for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
- Virgin Atlantic's transatlantic flight powered entirely by SAF in November 2023 marks a significant milestone.
- SAF has been used in over 400,000 commercial flights, primarily as a drop-in fuel.
- The blending limit for SAF currently ranges from 5% to 50%, which affects scalability and emission reduction potential.
- The report analyzes the European SAF industry, focusing on production pathways, feedstocks, and market trends until 2030.
Segmentation
SAF
- Fischer-Tropsch (FT)
- This method consists of the conversion of syngas into SAF and other liquid hydrocarbons. Syngas is obtained from various waste sources.
- Hydrogen and CO2 can be synthesized into syngas and then further processed into fuel by this pathway, producing power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels, the most sustainable yet costly alternative.
- Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ)
- Plants currently under development draw attention to this pathway, which is expected to gain prominence.
- It involves converting alcohol into jet fuel, facilitated by existing ethanol production infrastructure.
- Hydroprocessed Esters & Fatty Acids (HEFA)
- HEFA is the dominant pathway due to lower costs and technology maturity.
- HEFA uses feedstock such as used cooking oil, animal fat, and other lipid-rich materials. As other industries also use these, feedstock limitations turn HEFA into one of the least scalable and sustainable pathways.
- Other Production Pathways
- These include less commercially relevant pathways, such as direct sugars to hydrocarbons, catalytic hydrothermolysis jet fuel, and co-processing.
- Usually, scalability concerns in terms of feedstock or technology restrict these pathways’ usage.
Competitive Environment
| Competitive Environment | Details |
| Number of Competitors | 70 |
| Competitive Factors | Feedstocks and production pathways, blending limits, energy density, CAPEX and OPEX, associated emissions, and local sourcing |
| Key End-user Industry Verticals | HEFA, AtJ, FT, and other production pathways |
| Leading Competitors | Neste, ENI, SkyNRG, LanzaJet, ENGIE, Arcadia, BP, TotalEnergies, Phillips 66, and Shell |
| Other Notable Competitors | CEPSA, Repsol, Preem, Fulcrum, Velocys, INERATEC, and Infinium |
| Distribution Structure | | Feedstock and technology suppliers, investors, SAF producers, oil extractors, sustainability certification organisations, transport companies, refineries, blending and storage companies, operators, airports, and airlines |
| Notable Acquisitions and Mergers | In 2024, Repsol acquired a 40% stake in 3 plants owned by Bunge Global, Norwegian became a shareholder in Norsk eFuel, and Trafigura acquired part of Greenergy’s biofuel operations. In 2023, Velocys was acquired by Bidco. In 2022, ExxonMobil bought a 49.9% stake in Biojet AS. Between 2020 and 2023, Neste acquired Walco Foods, Crimson Renewable Energy’s used cooking oil collection and aggregation business, Agri Trading, and Mahoney Environmental. |
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
Scope of Analysis
Segmentation
The 6P Framework for the Future of the ESG, Sustainability, & Circular Economy—A Pathway to Net Zero?
Policies
Policies (continued)
SAF in Europe
Products
Processes
Processes (continued)
Processes (continued)
People/Personas
Partnerships
Partnerships (continued)
Platforms
Distribution Channels
Competitive Environment
Key Competitors—Supply
Key Competitors—Supply (continued)
Key Competitors—Supply (continued)
Key Competitors—Supply (continued)
Key Competitors—Supply (continued)
Key Competitors—Supply (continued)
Key Competitors—Supply (continued)
Key Competitors—Demand
Key Competitors—Demand (continued)
Key Competitors—Demand (continued)
Key Competitors—Demand (continued)
Key Competitors—Demand (continued)
Key Competitors—Demand (continued)
Key Competitors—Demand (continued)
Growth Metrics
Growth Drivers
Growth Restraints
Forecast Considerations
Revenue and Volume Forecast
Revenue Forecast by Product
Revenue Forecast Analysis
Pricing Trends and Forecast Analysis
Growth Opportunity 1: Crop Insurance to De-risk Feedstock Supply
Growth Opportunity 1: Crop Insurance to De-risk Feedstock Supply (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2: Global SAF Accounting for the Scaling of Book & Claim Initiatives
Growth Opportunity 2: Global SAF Accounting for the Scaling of Book & Claim Initiatives (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3: Regenerative Agriculture Projects Supporting Sustainable Feedstock Production
Growth Opportunity 3: Regenerative Agriculture Projects Supporting Sustainable Feedstock Production (continued)
List of Exhibits
Legal Disclaimer
List of Figures- SAF: Distribution Channel Analysis, Europe, 2023
- SAF: Growth Metrics, Europe, 2023
- SAF: Growth Drivers, Europe, 2024–2030
- SAF: Growth Restraints, Europe, 2024–2030
- SAF: Revenue and Volume Forecast, Europe, 2020–2030
- SAF: Revenue Forecast by Product, Europe, 2020–2030
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This Frost & Sullivan report analyzes the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry in Europe. It examines the technological developments in this space, covering relevant production pathways and feedstock. The aviation industry, responsible for high amounts of pollution, has increasingly been the focus of policies to reduce environmental damage, driving the adoption of decarbonization processes incorporating SAF to offset emissions. SAF can be produced through various pathways or methods, each with different feedstock requirements, energy needs, and environmental impacts. The study segments SAF pathways into the following: Fischer-Tropsch (FT), alcohol-to-jet (AtJ), hydroprocessed esters & fatty acids (HEFA), and other production pathways.
The report covers the policies regulating SAF usage across Europe and discusses key market trends. It describes the key processes, products, platforms, market players, and partnerships influencing this industry and offers relevant metrics and forecasts. The study examines the factors driving and restraining the growth of this industry and identifies the opportunities emerging from the changes in this space for market players and stakeholders to leverage. The base year is 2023, and the forecast period is from 2024 to 2030.
| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
| Author | Julieta Paez |
| Industries | Energy |
| No Index | No |
| Is Prebook | No |
| Keyword 1 | European Sustainable Aviation Fuel |
| Keyword 2 | Sustainable Aviation Fuel market |
| Keyword 3 | Aviation Fuel Market Trends |
| List of Charts and Figures | SAF: Distribution Channel Analysis, Europe, 2023~ SAF: Growth Metrics, Europe, 2023~ SAF: Growth Drivers, Europe, 2024–2030~ SAF: Growth Restraints, Europe, 2024–2030~ SAF: Revenue and Volume Forecast, Europe, 2020–2030~ SAF: Revenue Forecast by Product, Europe, 2020–2030~ |
| Podcast | No |
| WIP Number | KABF-01-00-00-00 |
European Sustainable Aviation Fuel Growth Opportunities, 2024 2030
European Sustainable Aviation Fuel Growth Opportunities, 2024 2030
Regional and National Incentives, Global Decarbonization Efforts, and Corporate Targets are Driving Growth
RELEASE DATE
09-Sep-2024
09-Sep-2024
REGION
Europe
Europe
Deliverable Type
Market Research
Market Research
Research Code: KABF-01-00-00-00
SKU: EG_2024_1008
$2,450.00
In stock
SKU
EG_2024_1008