Revenue forecast

The revenue estimate for the base year 2023 is $97.6million, with a CAGR of 38.7% for the study period 2023–2030

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Chemicals and Materials for Carbon Capture Industry

Disruptive Technologies

• Why:

  • Although CCUS has existed since the early 1970s and the IPCC strongly considered the need for net-negative technologies in its 2018 Special Report on 1.5 degrees Celsius, this broad set of technologies still faces an uphill battle.
  • The scale and speed of growth that climate models expect from CCUS are enormous.
• Frost Perspective:
  • CCUS will have to overcome challenges on implementation, scale, and business viability.
  • Governments will pour large amounts of funding for R&D and implementation. Companies must seize it to reach high technology readiness levels (TRL) in the shortest possible time.
  • Regulation will adapt accordingly to promote the necessary business conditions.
  • Service providers are considering certain business models to lessen customers’ total burden by delivering point-to-point services, including CCUS-as-a-service and CCUS hubs.

Industry Convergence

• Why:

  • CCUS’s name enumerates the opportunities for industries to collaborate.
  • Carbon capture companies offer their services to businesses that need them, while other companies seek ways to use these processes’ outcomes. Examples of the latter, include the food, construction, chemicals, and fuel industries.
  • Integrating the supply chain and using waste as a resource is a long-proven strategy in the chemical industry.
• Frost Perspective:
  • Some convergence is already being seen in the CCUS space.
  • The chemical industry, as a provider of solvents and materials for carbon capture, has much expertise in decarbonization, as well as a pressing need for it. As a result, it is an excellent partner for the CCUS industry.

Transformative Megatrends

• Why:

  • The IPCC, in its AR6 report, states that global GHG emissions in 2030 announced by October 2021 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius during the 21st century and make it harder to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius.
  • There is no doubt that sustainability is present in the corporate world, particularly in the largest conglomerates and leaders in each field. However, while it is an opportunity for some companies, for others it is still a threat.
• Frost Perspective:
  • Sustainability has been traditionally hard for some companies because it imposes limits and alternative paths that they may not always find comfortable.
  • The climate scenario that is opening before us will require more efforts from companies to achieve decarbonization as well as larger adaptation measures to counteract the impacts of climate change.
  • CCUS’s enormous growth will have to take place in a scenario with an increasing climate risk.

Scope of Analysis

• This analysis will focus on materials and chemicals inherent to CCUS technologies with a TRL of more than 7, and with a high reliance on chemicals.
• As a result, the study centers on materials and chemicals with the more relevant growth opportunities, the largest impact, and the greatest potential.
• The selection of technologies was based on forecasted revenues (covering around 65% of the market’s revenue by 2040), and the most relevant technologies of today.

Growth Drivers

• Annual capture capacity addition. The need for new capture capacity will necessarily increase. The global amount of carbon released into the atmosphere keeps growing, and the advancements of most countries and mitigation technologies are not enough to stay within the 1.5-degrees-Celsius threshold in scientific climate models. This need will drive the demand for capture chemicals and materials.

Growth Restraints

• Savings in chemicals thanks to technological advancements. Capture technologies will improve over time—they will capture more CO2 per unit of product, reducing losses along the capture-regeneration cycle. Efficiency varies with each technology and its maturity stage.
• Chemical intensity. The chemical intensity of CCUS chemicals and materials will have a slightly negative growth rate in the forecast period, depending on the amount used per tonne of captured CO2, each technology's market share, and the future demand expected.