The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Trucks

Transformative Mega Trends

• Why: The transition from fossil fuel-based automotive powertrains to low-emission or zero emission powertrains is accelerating.Automakers are exploring sustainable and renewable energy sources.Faster transition is a major economic goal for several countries as they strive to achieve a cleaner and safer environment.
• Frost Perspective: Electrification can replace conventional energy sources, such as coal and petroleum products.With supportive regulations and investments, electrification has already taken off, with commercial electric vehicles (EVs) expected to consume an estimated 100TWh of electricity by 2030.

Disruptive Technologies

• Why: Technology innovation is a key enabler of the transformation of the commercial vehicle (CV) industry.Advanced drivetrain architecture, nonpermanent magnet motors, and new battery chemistries will drive the progress of CV electrification.
• Frost Perspective: As the CV industry progresses, Tier I suppliers will begin to play a crucial role because of their ability to integrate electric technology in vehicles. Axle electrification evolves as manufacturers explore choices as part of the portfolio transition phase and for new-concept vehicles. As motor technology advances, axle architecture will be preferred while central drive architecture will decline, which is the prominent technology choice for most OEMs during the initial transition phase.

Industry Convergence

• Why: Legacy companies with high-polluting diesel truck portfolios and dominant market shares monopolize the trucking industry because range anxiety and high-cost batteries make it difficult for them to shift to a zero emission portfolio.Utility companies, oil companies, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are developing charging capabilities and eliminating range anxiety to increase electric powertrain adoption.
• Frost Perspective: Component suppliers and vehicle manufacturers will begin to focus on value chain integration and capability expansion.The diverse dynamics of vehicle ownership, including maintenance, performance, and operation, across different technology platforms will impact consumer preferences. These changes are expected to converge around specific nodes of vehicle platform development.

Research Scope

• Base Year: 2022
• Study Period: 2022–2030
• Forecast Period: 2023–2030
• Market/Segment/Program Area:
  • Powertrain Type: Battery Electric Vehicle
  • The study covers the CV market across the following sectors:
    • HD CV: Greater than 16 tons GVWR
  • Energy consumption for HD trucks at charger level is also covered from 50kW to 1MW.
  • Total HDT Lifecycle CO2 Emissions Assessment included in study.
• Geographic Scope: Europe: Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, RoE

Growth Drivers

• Emission Regulations to Drive EV Adoption: The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide and almost a quarter of hydrocarbon emissions.

• Many countries focus on strengthening greenhouse gas emission regulations to reduce tailpipe pollutants, and governments promote renewable energy sources because automobiles consume roughly 60% of global fossil fuels.

• Improved Total Cost of Ownership (TCO): With the anticipated reduction in the purchase costs of EVs and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), the smaller price gap compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will be offset by savings on fuel and maintenance. Low electricity costs, when compared to continuously increasing fuel prices, will make EVs more economically viable. On a TCO basis, the running cost of a commercial EV will soon be lower than that of ICE vehicles.
• Increasing Global Adoption Enabling Economies of Scale: The introduction and adoption of EVs in major global economies such as Europe, NA, China, and Latin America has helped advance global sourcing and supply chain and factory line production. It has facilitated the proliferation of duty-cycle-focused technologies, which are benefiting from global adoption and enabling technology maturity and price declines.
• Technology Readiness: Increased battery R&D aims to improve battery capacity and density, giving EVs better ranges through high-energy-density or solid-state lithium batteries. Ultrafast DC charging stations of more than 350 kW that reduce charging times will require minimal development.

Growth Restraints