The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Future Defense Technologies Industry

Disruptive Technologies

• Why
  • Innovative technologies will be the cornerstone for developments in future military operations.
  • Technology development, especially in materials, propulsion, and communication technology, will drive the industry forward and help achieve the desired outcomes.
• Frost Perspective
  • The deployment of next-generation propulsion technologies, such as hypersonic propulsion systems, or novel energy sources, such as fusion or advanced nuclear reactors, will reach completion in the next 10 years.
  • The integration of emerging technologies, such as 5G networks, mesh networking, and cognitive radio systems to enhance bandwidth, reliability, and security, will occur in the next 5 years.

Industry Convergence

• Why

  • Collaboration among stakeholders spanning governments and research and development (R&D) institutions is paramount for the advancement of novel solutions.
  • The development of such technologies will necessitate a substantial increase of funding to bolster R&D endeavors and comprehensive testing initiatives.
• Frost Perspective
  • Stakeholders are converging and partnering to support new technology development.
  • Numerous partnerships among small and medium-sized enterprises, legacy companies, and intergovernmental organizations will emerge over the next 5 years to accelerate development and share costs.

Competitive Intensity

• Why
  • Start-ups and commercial companies will play a significant role in the development and adoption of future military technologies across various domains.
  • Their contribution will reshape the defense landscape by introducing innovation, agility, and cost-effectiveness into traditionally bureaucratic and slow-moving processes.
• Frost Perspective
  • The defense sector is heavily regulated, with stringent requirements for product safety, security, and compliance with export controls and International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). Commercial companies must invest in understanding and adhering to these regulations to avoid legal complications and ensure smooth operations.
  • Building relationships with key stakeholders, including government agencies, military personnel, and industry partners, will be key.

Purpose and Overview

• This study explores the emergence of new technologies in the military domain. These technologies are likely to have a significant impact on the operational and tactical capabilities of the different armed forces. The study examines the following technologies:
  • Hypersonics
  • Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs)
  • Millimeter Wave Communications (5G)
  • Mixed Reality (MR)
  • Energy Generation and Storage
  • Additive Manufacturing (AM)
  • Quantum Computing and Cryptography
  • Swarm Robotics and Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T)
  • Biotechnologies and Human Enhancement
  • Metamaterials
• The study also analyzes calendar year (CY) 2024’s programs and awards, including multiyear contracts and future programs, to determine the scale of spending activities.
• It examines regional geopolitical climates, international defense partnerships, and collaborations between the United States and allied nations to identify industry drivers and restraints as well as growth opportunities.
• Contract data estimates are derived from publicly announced defense contracts; they only include unclassified information.

Growth Drivers

• Rapid advancements in technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, nanotechnology, and quantum computing, offer entirely new military capabilities.
• Hypersonic weapons, which are missiles and glide vehicles that travel faster than Mach 5, are being developed by several countries, including the United States, Russia, and China. Unlike ballistic missiles, these weapons maneuver in flight, and their non-parabolic trajectories make them more difficult to defend against. Large research, development, test, and evaluation (RDTE) investments have also been made in DEWs, with the intent of building capacity in areas that will, directly or indirectly, contribute to the development of specific weapons.
• The evolving nature of warfare—from asymmetric threats and cyber warfare to the growing reliance on unmanned systems—drives the creation and acceptance of many new military technologies.
• Technologies initially developed for civilian purposes, including AI and AM, are being increasingly adopted for military applications, accelerating their adoption.
• In China, work to integrate language and facial recognition technologies into domestic surveillance apparatus to counter foreign espionage and improve targeting capabilities has accelerated. The Russian military is exploring AI application, especially in semiautonomous and autonomous military vehicles.
• In FY2023, the US Department of Defense (DoD) sought $1.3 billion for biotech-related initiatives for battlefield medicine, diagnostics, and prognostics, while several countries are pursuing biotechnology and neuroscience to increase soldier lethality by enhancing strength, intelligence, physical capabilities, and endurance beyond normal human limits.
• Governments are allocating significant budgets for R&D initiatives that prioritize the development and acquisition of advanced military technologies.

Growth Restraints