Revenue Forecast

The Growth Pipeline™ Company estimates the North American MRF market revenue at $11.90 billion for the base year 2023, with a projected CAGR of 6.8% from 2023 to 2030, reaching $18.92 billion by 2030.

scope of analysis

• MRFs
  • CAPEX 
    • New Build 
    • Refurbishment
• OPEX 

Competitive Environment

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives

Geopolitical Chaos

Why:

• Implemented on January 1, 2018, China’s National Sword policy bans the import of most plastic waste and other recyclable materials into China.
• This has created urgent demand to develop material recovery and recycling infrastructure across North America—and other regions—driving new investments in material recovery facilities (MRFs) in the United States and Canada.

Frost Perspective:

• North America focuses on closing infrastructure gaps and developing efficient and cost-effective material recovery value chains.
• The North American MRF market, which comprises operating expenditure (OPEX) and capital expenditure (CAPEX), reached $11.9 billion in 2022. We project the market to expand to $18.9 billion by 2030, with a 6.8% CAGR between 2023 and 2030.
• Although this results in the construction of new MRFs across the United States and Canada, infrastructure to fulfill the circular economy strategies of municipalities remains insufficient.
• The region is also undergoing large-scale refurbishment of existing facilities to improve the recovery rate of processed materials, including hard-to-recycle materials, and enable the recovery of new material streams.

Disruptive Technologies

Why:

• Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based robotic sorting, coupled with process digitization, is the leading investment focus of MRF operators to ensure high operational efficiency and profit from the material recovery business.
• Full process automation and access to qualitative and quantitative data on processed materials allow operators to view the bigger picture of the plant operation, providing better understanding, transparency, and mapping of the sustainability potential.

Frost Perspective:

• Growth opportunities are in developing technologies and solutions that enable advanced material recognition for efficient and accurate material sorting and separation; Platform-based solutions to monitor material flow; and end-to-end data analytics platforms to enhance visibility, boost efficiency, and promote sustainability and improved resource circularity at the plant level and beyond.
• Plant operators see machine learning (ML), AI, and robotics as the top solutions to bring enhanced efficiencies in material recovery and recycling, ensuring greater transparency in material flow.

Industry Convergence

Why:

• MRF operators' key focus is to maximize plant profitability, integrate MRFs across waste management programs of local communities, and support ongoing business relationships with recovered material buyers.
• The vertical integration of innovative solutions providers will likely push the development of advanced sorting and material recovery to close the loop on material sourcing and support the circular economy programs of municipalities.

Frost Perspective:

• As major MRF operators can make high-scale investments to refurbish and develop state-of-the-art facilities, they often seek advanced technology providers—especially in automation, robotics, AI-based sorting, and platform-based solutions—to increase the transparency of materials, processes, and entire plant operations.
• Strategic partnerships between MRF operators and technology providers are increasingly important in developing well-organized material recovery value chains.