This research service discusses the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on select European automotive replacement lubricants aftermarket for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (class 1 to 3) in demand (million units) and volume (million US Quart). The regions covered are the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The base year is 2022, and the forecast period is 2023.
This study analyzes key oil and natural gas companies in Europe, followed by major Russian oil companies operating in the region. It highlights the dependency of European countries on Russian oil companies, the exit strategy of major European oil and lubricant manufacturers, and their alternative sourcing strategy.
The study discusses macroeconomic trends influenced by war, such as GDP, inflation, recession, and impact on major currencies. It identifies market drivers and restraints that can influence lubricant demand in 2023. The total demand base is identified, and 3 lubricants covered are engine oil (motor oil or passenger car motor oil [PCMO]), gear oil, and transmission fluid. For each lubricant, Frost & Sullivan forecasts 3 growth scenarios for the year 2023:
• Scenario 1 is based on historical trends. It depicts a market without the War.
• Scenario 2 is based on higher growth, as the market reacts positively to a possibility where demand grows faster than historical trends. The War does not affect domestic markets severely.
• Scenario 3 is based on a lower growth rate, as the market reacts negatively to a possibility where demand shrinks quicker than historical trends. The War adversely affects domestic European markets.
The study identifies growth opportunities in the automotive lubricant segment in areas of alternative distribution partners, sourcing avenues, and production.
Author: Benson Augustine
Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on Select Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
Scope of Analysis
Key Questions this Research Deliverable will Address
Segmentation & Definition
Distribution Structure
Key Competitors—Major Automotive Lubricants Suppliers in Europe
Key Findings
Current Scenario and 2023 Outlook
Russo-Ukrainian War—Timeline of Key Events & Economic Sanctions
Crude Oil Brent* Prices
GDP Growth Outlook, 2022–2023
Global GDP Growth Outlook by Scenario
Impact of War on Global GDP
Impact of War on Macroeconomic Dynamics
Impact of War on Macroeconomic Dynamics (continued)
What to Expect Ahead?
Largest European Oil Companies by Revenue, 2021
Russia & Ukraine Largest Oil & Gas Companies by Revenue, 2021
Major Importers of (HSN 27101980) in Europe
Petrochemical Companies—Exit and Business Continuity Strategy
Petrochemical Companies—Exit and Business Continuity Strategy(continued)
Noteworthy Trends in the European Lubricant Landscape
Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the European OEMs & Distribution Ecosystem
Global Automotive OEMs Pausing Trade with Russia & Ukraine
Shift in OEM, OES, and Distributor-Supplier Strategies
Growth Drivers
Growth Restraints
Forecast Assumptions
Growth Metrics
Key European Economic & Automotive Aftermarket Metrics1
Select European Countries—VIO & Growth Forecast to 2023
Impact of the Pandemic & the Russo-Ukrainian War on Vehicle Kilometer
Increase in Passenger Vehicle Ownership Patterns in Europe, 2022
Total Replacement Lubricant Aftermarket—Unit & Volume Demand
Replacement Aftermarket—Engine Oil Demand
Replacement Aftermarket—Gear Oil Demand
Replacement Aftermarket—Transmission Fluid Demand
Summary—Channel Impact
What to Expect Ahead in 2023 for the Aftermarket Automotive Lubricant Supplier?
Growth Opportunity 1—American and North African Oil Distribution Groups
Growth Opportunity 1—American and North African Oil Distribution Groups (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2—Double Down on Production and Distribution
Growth Opportunity 2—Double Down on Production and Distribution (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3—Retail Volume Monitoring Technologies
Growth Opportunity 3—Retail Volume Monitoring Technologies (continued)
The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
List of Exhibits
Legal Disclaimer
List of Figures- GDP Growth, Global and Key Countries, 2021–2023
- GDP Growth Impact Analysis, Global and Key Countries, 2022 and 2023
- Scenario Analysis of GDP Growth, Percentage Change from Same Quarter of Previous Year (YoY), Global, Q1 2022–Q4 2023
- Impact of War on 2022 GDP Growth Figures, Global, 2022
- Macroeconomic Data Dynamics, Global, 2022
- European Countries Importing Russian Oil, 2021
- European Countries Importing Russian Gas, 2021
- Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Select Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket: Growth Drivers, Europe, Q4 2022–H2 2023
- Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Select Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket: Growth Restraints, Europe, Q4 2022–H2 2023
- Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Select Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket: Growth Metrics, Europe, 2022
- GDP Growth, Europe2, 2021–2023
- New Vehicle Sales, Europe2, 2021–2022
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| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
| Author | Vasanth Raj |
| Industries | Automotive |
| No Index | No |
| Is Prebook | No |
| Keyword 1 | impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War |
| Keyword 2 | European automotive replacement lubricants aftermarket |
| Keyword 3 | Automotive Aftermarket |
| List of Charts and Figures | GDP Growth, Global and Key Countries, 2021–2023~ GDP Growth Impact Analysis, Global and Key Countries, 2022 and 2023~ Scenario Analysis of GDP Growth, Percentage Change from Same Quarter of Previous Year (YoY), Global, Q1 2022–Q4 2023~ Impact of War on 2022 GDP Growth Figures, Global, 2022~ Macroeconomic Data Dynamics, Global, 2022~ European Countries Importing Russian Oil, 2021~ European Countries Importing Russian Gas, 2021~ Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Select Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket: Growth Drivers, Europe, Q4 2022–H2 2023~ Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Select Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket: Growth Restraints, Europe, Q4 2022–H2 2023~ Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Select Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket: Growth Metrics, Europe, 2022~ GDP Growth, Europe2, 2021–2023~ New Vehicle Sales, Europe2, 2021–2022~ |
| Podcast | No |
| WIP Number | MG47-01-00-00-00 |
Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Select European Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket
Two Quarters of War-like Conditions and Geopolitical Chaos will Shrink the Demand for Automotive Lubricants by 2.1% in 2023
01-Dec-2022
Europe
Market Research